Daily Sports Pick ‘em 1/8 — NCAAB, Soccer and NBA Picks
Ohio vs Toledo (over 147.5) (6:30 p.m. EST)
One of my favorite plays of the day comes in the form of MACtion as my alma mater squares off against Toledo. While I haven’t been able to trust either of these two teams against the spread in recent years, I do like the potential for the total.
Ohio and Toledo have arguably been the two best teams in the MAC this year. They’ve also been the two best offenses in the conference. The Bobcats and Rockets rank 53rd and 49th respectively in offensive efficiency (Bart Torvik). Neither team is defending all that well either and Ohio is coming off one of its worst defensive showings of the year against a lowly Northern Illinois team.
Ohio has been without star point guard Jason Preston for the last few games due to injury. Even without the potential NBA prospect, the Cats still have a balanced scoring attack. Dwight Wilson, Ben Roderick and Ben Vander Plas are each coming off double-digit scoring marks against the Huskies. Wilson is averaging 16.8 points per game and is a double-double machine.
Toledo’s strength lies in its elite 3-point shooting. The Rockets are 38th in the country in 3-point percentage at 38 percent on the dot. In their 84–82 win over Kent State, Spencer Littleson and Marreon Jackson chipped in a combined 48 points. Littleson is on fire from long range this year and currently has a true shooting percentage of 67.7.
I like the over in this spot given how powerful both these offenses have been. I’m expecting a high-scoring end to end game between two of the better mid-majors in the county.
PICK: Over 147.5
Louisiana Monroe vs Texas Arlington (Under 139) (7:30 p.m. EST)
Next we move on to a Sun Belt contest that should be the exact opposite of the previous game.
When looking at these two teams, neither one has developed much offensive consistency. This is especially the case with Louisiana Monroe, as the Warhawks currently rank 324th in the country in offensive efficiency. Surprisingly, they are a decent 3-point shooting team. Despite this, they’ve managed to surpass a 100 offensive rating in two of their nine games this season.
UT-Arlington hasn’t fared much better from an offensive standpoint. The Mavericks are coming off a doubleheader loss to Little Rock and have lost six of seven games this year to Division I opponents (their strength of schedule was challenging, I may add). Shahada Wells leads the way with 15.6 points per game while Sam Griffin chips in 12 points a night as well.
What is interesting to me about these teams is that both of them are bottom-50 in the country in terms of 2-point percentage. When you add that neither team shoots above 70 percent from the line into that equation, it makes for a low-scoring contest. I project this game at 133.
- Both teams are a combined 55 percent to the under since 2019.
PICK: Under 139
Cleveland State (-2.5) vs Northern Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Next up is a Horizon League matchup from the Wolstein Center in Cleveland.
The Northern Kentucky Norse look for a win after a 5–4 start. The Norse are averaging 70.8 points on 43.7 percent shooting and allowing 71.7 points on 47.4 percent shooting. Trevon Faulkner is averaging 16.7 points and 5.4 rebounds while Marques Warrick is averaging 13.4 points and 1.4 assists. This team has been struggling with defense this year. NKU has allowed at least 70 points in each of their last five games.
The Cleveland State Vikings enter this game on a six game winning streak. They are averaging 68 points on 45.3 percent shooting and allowing 70.3 points on 42.5 percent shooting. D’Moi Hodge leads the team with 15.1 points and 1.9 assists while Torrey Patton is averaging 11.4 points and 6.8 rebounds. Tre Gomillion is the third double-digit scorer and Craig Beaudion is dishing 2.4 assists. The Cleveland State Vikings are shooting 31.3 percent from beyond the arc and 64.6 percent from the free throw line.
CSU is playing their best basketball in years, as this squad certainly looks different than years past. On top of that, they’ve been covering in those games. Who knows how long it lasts, but I’m not trying to fade Cleveland State right now. Both teams are playing good basketball, but I still feel you have to go with the hot hand. The Vikings are playing well largely in part to their defense. They are shutting opponents down, and the fact that the Norse are struggling to get to the free-throw line and are not a very good shooting team overall gives the edge to the Vikings.
PICK: Cleveland State -2.5
Liberty vs Kennesaw State (Under 130.5) (6:00 P.M. EST)
In a game of two slow-paced, Atlantic Sun teams, I like the under here. Kennesaw State has scored 66 points once in five games this year, and going against a defensive minded, methodical Liberty team shouldn’t help that matter. Liberty has a very efficient offense that shoots well and takes care of the ball, but it should also be harder for these teams to get to 130 with minimal possessions. I project this total at 127.
PICK: Under 130.5
Other NCAAB Picks:
- Oakland (ML, -125) vs UW Green Bay (5:00 p.m. EST)
- UMKC (+2) vs South Dakota (8:00 p.m. EST)
- Bayern Munich vs Gladbach(Gladbach +1, Over 3.5) (2:30 p.m. EST)
- Villareal vs Celta Vigo (PK +135) (3:00 p.m. EST)
- Cole Anthony under 15.5 points (-115)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo under 13.5 rebounds (-148)