Daily Sports Pick ’Em 1/5 — News and Observations, NCAAB, NBA Picks

News and Observations

Alabama State can’t find it offensively.

The Alabama State Hornets suffered another blowout loss at home in conference play Monday. The Hornets fell to Jackson State 60–44 in their second game of the new year, are shooting just 5–30 from downtown through two games, and have totaled 93 points in those two contests.

Look for Alabama State to be a major under team this year. The Hornets were projected as a bottom-10 offense in college basketball coming in, and that prediction has been spot on. Alabama State has also played 63% to the under since 2018.

The Drake Bulldogs are still cover machines

Drake didn’t let the zigzag theory get to them Monday, as they wiped the floor with the Southern Illinois Salukis by a final of 86–55.

Drake is now a nation best 11–0 ATS this season. They are the only team that has covered more than seven games in a row to start the season. This could lead to market inflation for the Bulldogs, which is something to look out for in future Missouri Valley Conference matchups.

West Virginia rallies to beat Oklahoma State

After faltering Saturday against Oklahoma, the Mountaineers rallied from 19 down to take down Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State.

In their second game without Oscar Tshiebwe, Derek Culver led the way for WVU with 22 points and 19 rebounds while recording his sixth double-double. Deuce McBride also added 19 points in the second half and 21 total.

For the Cowboys, the freshman phenom Cunningham scored 25 points and added nine rebounds. Despite the effort, the Cowboys fell to 7–3 and 1–3 in a rugged Big 12.

NCAA Basketball Picks

Dayton vs Fordham (Under 126.5, 6:00 p.m. EST)

Even in a low-totaled game like this, the under is enticing, especially with Fordham taking the floor. These numbers will increase, but Fordham is shooting 14.6 percent from deep, 38.6 percent from two, and 67.5 percent from the free throw line. They posted just 47 points against a George Washington team that defends poorly and followed it up with a 4–27 performance from deep against La Salle. Fordham has played just those two games this year, and they’ve looked starved offensively. Joel Soriano and Josh Colon combine for 26 points per game, but there isn’t much else to speak highly of with this squad thus far. They also play at the 315th fastest tempo in the country.

Dayton has certainly approached things differently this year without lottery pick Obi Toppin. The Flyers have slowed things down to a halt and have had just one game exceed 140 points total because of it (and it was a double-overtime game). They aren’t the premier squad they were last year, but they are still fairly efficient offensively thanks to Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson. Crutcher was one of the more underappreciated players in the country last year and is averaging 18.5 points and 5.4 assists per game in his senior campaign.

With both these teams playing as slow as they do and Fordham not being able to convert any kind of shot they take, the under is the play. I’m projecting 123 points in this one and don’t feel late game fouling will be an issue given this game shouldn’t be all that close.

PICK: Under 126.5

Ohio (-15.5) vs Northern Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)

The MACtion rages on as the Ohio Bobcats welcome a reeling Northern Illinois team into town.

With Northern Illinois, they enter this contest with a new head coach following the firing of Mark Montgomery. The Huskies enter this contest 0–8 ATS and 1–7 overall. Their lone victory of the year was against lowly Chicago State, and they failed to cover.

The Huskies offense has been nonexistent following the departure of Eugene German, which was something I discussed in yesterday’s observations. Darius Beane chips in 11.8 points per game, and Tyler Cochran has also been efficient as well with 13.8 points per game in five outings. This is still a team however that is shooting under 40 percent from the field and barely over 20 percent from deep.

Ohio is coming off a much-needed road conference win against Ball State. Point guard Jason Preston continues to garner national headlines for his play, as the junior is averaging 18.9 points and 7.4 assists a night. Dwight Wilson, Ben Roderick and Ben Vander Plas have all chipped in on both ends as well, as Ohio appears to be one of the more balanced offenses in the MAC.

Neither of these teams have been setting the world on fire to start conference play, but I can’t resist the urge to fade Northern Illinois on the road. The Huskies are the worst cover team in college basketball and are headed down a rough path with a new coach. This is a “show me” spot for both teams, as Ohio needs a big win to assert themselves in the MAC and Northern Illinois needs to hang around with a conference opponent.

PICK: Ohio -15.5

UCF (+1) vs Memphis (Under 137.5) (9:00 p.m. EST)

The Memphis Tigers have been playing well to the under in the last two years, and they are a very similar team to last season. The Tigers were a mediocre offensive squad that ranked in the top-10 in defensive efficiency last year, and that’s exactly what they’ve been in 2020–21. Memphis is eighth in Division I in defensive rating but has surpassed the 110 offensive rating in just one of 10 games this year.

It seems like despite the talent they have brought in, the Tigers just haven’t quite been able to hit their stride under Penny Hardaway. They are 2–1 in conference play, but have failed to cover in any of their three AAC matchups after struggling to beat Tulane and South Florida. The lack of shooting from last year has returned, as the Tigers are hitting just 30.4 percent of their long-range attempts. The addition of Landers Nolley II and the improvement of Lester Quinones and Boogie Ellis have helped, but this is still a team that struggles in half-court sets and thrives in transition where they can create chaos.

This has been a different UCF team than in year’s past. While they are still playing slow like a typical Johnny Dawkins team, they lack a true frontcourt presence and instead have found a star guard to lead the way. While it is a small sample size, Brandon Mahan has been shooting the lights out through six games and has taken a big stride from year one to two as a Knight. He is currently 9–19 from deep and averages a team-leading 17.5 points a contest. Darin Green Jr. has also chipped in just under 13 points per game to give the Knights a formidable backcourt.

Unfortunately for UCF, C.J. Walker has not panned out as well as anticipated in the frontcourt. The former five-star prospect was expected to make a leap after a disappointing freshman campaign at Oregon, but has struggled to find his footing. The Florida product is averaging just 4.8 points a night and has struggled shooting the ball.

This game is similar to the OU-NIU game in that neither of these teams have a lot going for them right now from an ATS standpoint. Memphis has failed to cover in each of their last six, and UCF is coming off a road loss to in-state rival South Florida. This is still a spot where I like the Knights. This is another major test for the Tigers, and I simply do not trust this team, especially away from home. I also like the under here in a game where neither team excels offensively and both squads pride themselves on defense. The fact that Memphis loves to run-and-gun and that late-game free throws could be a factor worries me, but I can’t take the over for a Memphis team that is still searching for answers. If UCF keeps Memphis off the offensive glass as well, this should be a victory for the Knights.

• UCF is 4–1 ATS in their last five home games
• The under is 37–17–1 in the Tigers last 55 games
• The under is 11–4 in the Knights last 15 home games

PICKS: UCF +1, Under 137.5

Other NCAAB Picks:

Connecticut vs. Marquette over 139.5

These are two top-40 offenses in college basketball. The projected total is 142.

• The total has gone OVER in 11 of Connecticut’s last 15 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Marquette’s last 9 games against Connecticut.

Clemson vs. N.C. State under 136.5

Project this total at 132. I don’t trust Clemson’s offense to get to 65 on any given night and they have the best defensive efficiency in the country. N.C. State is usually a much better team offensively than defensively, but this season that has flipped. This game has the potential to be sloppy given that both teams force a lot of turnovers.

NBA Picks:

Jusuf Nurkic under 9.5 rebounds (-115)

Nurkic has seen a drop in minutes this year from 31 to 24, causing his rebounding numbers to dip as well. He is averaging just 7.3 rebounds a night compared to the 10.5 he had last year.

Dillon Brooks under 18.5 points (-110)

Brooks has seen a dip in minutes in his last three games and is averaging just 15 points per game during that stretch.

Mike Conley over 3.5 rebounds (-105)

Conley is averaging 4.3 rebounds a game this year and should see roughly 32 to 33 minutes tonight against the Nets.

Keldon Johnson over 5.5 rebounds (-120)

Johnson has seen an increase in minutes which has led to the Kentucky product averaging 7.5 rebounds a night.