Daily Sports Pick ’Em 1/4 — News and Observations, NCAAB, NBA Picks

News and Observations

Caleb Mills leaves Houston, uncertain to return.

The Houston men’s basketball team suffered a big loss Sunday, as the school announced that reigning All-AAC second team guard Caleb Mills is taking a leave of absence from the program.

After averaging 13.2 points per game in his freshman season, Mills has seen a dip in his production in his second year. The AAC All-Freshman selection from last season has played in just four games this year and is averaging 9.8 points per game on just 25% from deep.

While Houston is still a top-10 team by most metrics (ninth in both Bart Torvik and Pomeroy), the Cougars have had a unique season due to COVID-19 concerns. They did not play from Dec. 6 to Dec. 19, as head coach Kelvin Sampson revealed that all players have tested positive at some point.

Northern Illinois fires Mark Montgomery

Northern Illinois has parted ways with head coach Mark Montgomery after a 1–7 start, the school announced Sunday.

After taking over in 2011, Montgomery amassed just two winning seasons with the Huskies. After going 18–13 last year, Northern Illinois has struggled in the 2020–21 campaign, largely due to the loss of 20 point per game scorer Eugene German. The Huskies currently rank in the bottom 25 (333rd, Pomeroy) in the country in offensive efficiency.

Northern Illinois has been an auto-fade this year, and while I expect some progression in terms of their record against the spread, they are still a nationwide worst 0–8 ATS and 3–5 to the under. I can’t see those figures changing significantly in MAC play either even with some expected market inflation. After all, this is the same team that couldn’t cover against Chicago State.

Lamar Chapman, an associate head coach, will assume the role of head coach for the remainder of the season.

Nojel Eastern out at Howard

The Howard Bison were hit with more unfortunate news Sunday, as Purdue transfer Nojel Eastern announced he was opting out of the remainder of the season.

This continues what has been an unfortunate season for the Bison. Howard had higher expectations than previous years with the expected additions of Eastern and 5-star prospect Makur Maker, but have sputtered to a 1–4 start. Maker has played in just one game this year due to injuries.

Picks

Jackson State (-5.5) vs. Alabama State (Under 132)(9:00 p.m.)

Not exactly starting off with the highest rated game, but a game with some good potential out of the SWAC.

Both of these teams will be looking for their first victory of the season Monday night inside the Dunn-Oliver Acadome. Jackson State rolls in 0–5 following a difficult non-conference schedule. The Tigers are led by the two-headed monster of Tristan Jarrett and Jayvious McKinnis. These two combine for 32 points and 15 rebounds a game. Outside of those two, there hasn’t been much to harp about.

Despite an offense that has yet to surpass 60 points this season, their defense hasn’t been too shabby for a team that is ranked near 300th in Division I. The Tigers are 178th by Bart Torvik’s standards in terms of defensive efficiency

For Alabama State, they opened their season in rough fashion against Grambling on January 2. The Hornets were dominated from the very beginning in a 66–49 defeat while posting an offensive rating of just 65.9. They shot just 30.9 percent from the floor, 2–20 from deep, and had a turnover percentage near 30.

Jackson State is simply more talented and experienced in this matchup. Non-conference records are thrown out of the window come conference time, especially in the SWAC. Jackson State also has a bigger sample size of games this season, whereas Alabama State has played just one game where they looked awful.

• Alabama State is 0–6 ATS in their last six home games.
• The road team is 4–1 ATS in the last five meetings
• Jackson State is 9–4 to the under in their last 13 road games, while Alabama State is 4–0 to the under in their last four games.

PICKS: Jackson State -5.5, Under 132

Boston University (-9.5) vs Holy Cross (2:00 p.m.)

Patriot League action tips off Monday afternoon as the Boston University Terriers take on the Holy Cross Crusaders.

When looking at these two squads, they were certainly on different levels a year ago. The Terriers return a good amount of production from a team that won over 20 games. This team will certainly miss Max Mahoney, who was their best player from a season ago. That being said, they still return four of their five best players. Walter Whyte, Javante McCoy, Jonas Harper and Alex Vilarino are all back in the fold. Whyte and McCoy project to be double-digit scorers once again after the duo combined for 25 points per game in 2019–20.

With Holy Cross, the Crusaders are still in rebuild mode following a 3-win, last place in the conference season. The good news is that Austin Butler returns after averaging 11.8 points and 6.2 rebounds a game last year. Guard Ryan Wade and forward Matt Faw should each pitch in double-digit scoring as well, and this team will certainly need it. Where this team needs to improve the most, however, is defensively. The Crusaders ranked 344th last year in defensive efficiency and allowed opponents to shoot 55.6 percent from two.

The talent disparity is too tempting for me in this spot. Holy Cross has reason to be optimistic that they will surpass their three wins from last year, but this is also a Boston University team that returns 86.6 percent of their minutes from a 21 win team.

PICK: Boston University -9.5

Hampton (+6) vs. Radford (7:00 p.m.)

Hampton and Radford will square off Monday night in the first of a competitive Big South doubleheader. Both teams enter the first contest 3–1 in conference play.

Hampton is coming off a split doubleheader against Gardner Webb that saw Davion Warren continue to emerge for the Pirates. In those two games, the senior posted 54 points and is currently averaging 24.5 points per game in conference play. Guard Chris Shelton has also seen vast improvement from last year for the Pirates, as he’s upped his offensive box plus-minus from -0.2 to 3.3 while improving his shooting numbers. The Pirates currently have four double-digit scorers and average 70 points per game. They also play at the 32nd fastest pace in college basketball.

Radford is also coming off a split against Presbyterian. The Highlanders have seen expected regression following the loss of star guard Carlik Jones to Louisville. The Highlanders greatest strength lies in their offensive rebounding, as their 32.2 percent offensive rebounding mark ranks 70th in the nation. That being said, they rank in the bottom 30 in the country when it comes to taking care of the ball (24.8 turnover percentage). This team does not have anyone who averages double figures in scoring and has struggled to find any consistency offensively without Jones. Fah’mir Ali leads the team with 9.8 points per game, but also coughs the ball up over three times a contest and has an offensive rating of just 76. Quinton Morton-Robinson, Lewis Djonkam and Dravon Mangum all stepped up for Radford in their last doubleheader and each had a double digit scoring game in that span.

This is a spot where Radford is getting too many points. Radford is the slightly better team on paper given Hampton is somewhat inefficient offensively, but six points is too much for the Highlanders here. If the Pirates can keep Radford off the glass and force turnovers, they should cover here.

PICK: Hampton +6

• Hampton is 5–0 ATS in their last 5 games against Radford.
• Hampton is 6–1 ATS in their last seven games against Big South opponents.
• Hampton is 10–4 in their last 14 games as an underdog

NBA: Aaron Gordon under 3.5 assists (-135).

This has been one of my more consistent prop looks of the year. Gordon has seen a reduction in minutes this year from 32 to 24, and his assists have suffered because of it (3.5 per game to 1.7). He did have five assists in his last game, but has still had three assists or fewer in five of six games this season.

LaMelo Ball over 4.5 assists (-120)

As the youngest Ball brother gets his minutes increased, his assist totals should elevate as well. In games where he has played over 20 minutes, Ball is averaging 5.3 assists per game. Expect another night of big minutes here.

Ben Simmons over 7.5 rebounds (-111)

The former number one pick is averaging a career high 9.8 rebounds a contest this year and is a career 8.3 per game rebounder.

Kyle Lowry over 6.5 assists (-120)

Lowry is posting 8.2 assists per game this year and his assist prop is 4–1 to the over.

Tim Hardaway Jr. under 6.5 rebounds (-134)

Even with a boost in playing time, this is the same Tim Hardaway that has averaged 3.3 rebounds per game since the 2018–19 season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo under 12.5 rebounds (+105)

Giannis is a great rebounder, but he’s also pulling down 11.7 rebounds a game and his rebound prop is 4–1 to the under this year.