2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: Dallas Mavericks
Head Coach: Rick Carlisle
Last Season: 33–49, 14th in Western Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: Delon Wright
- SG: Luka Doncic
- SF: Tim Hardaway Jr.
- PF: Kristaps Porzingis
- C: Dwight Powell
Additions: Antonius Cleveland, Seth Curry, Boban Marjanovic, Josh Reaves (R), Isaiah Roby (R), Delon Wright.
Losses: Kostas Antetokounmpo, Trey Burke, Devin Harris, Daryl Macon, Salah Mejri, Dirk Nowitzki.
After 21 seasons, the Dirk Nowitzki era in Dallas has officially come to a close. The 14-time All-Star, 2006–07 MVP and 12-time All-NBA selection leaves the association as arguably the greatest international player in NBA history and a superstar in the city of Dallas.
As the Nowitzki era closes for the Mavericks, another era begins with two international players spearheading the attack. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are charged with leading the Mavericks franchise back to prosperity and bringing the Larry O’ Brien trophy back to Dallas for the first time since 2011.
To this day, I still find it hard to believe that two NBA teams passed on Luka Doncic. The Slovenian guard had one of the craftiest rookie seasons in recent memory and showed a feel for the game that many veterans do not possess. In his first season, Doncic averaged 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and six assists per game. After the Mavericks traded away ball-dominant point guard Dennis Smith Jr., Doncic was handed the keys to the offense and didn’t look back.
What impresses me the most about Doncic is his ability to pass and create for his teammates. Last season, Doncic ranked in the 92nd percentile in creating for his teammates and in the 88th percentile in passer rating. In the pick and roll, if he can’t find the roller, Doncic is able to consistently kick to open shooters in the corner with razor sharp skip passes.
He also uses his craftiness for shot creating purposes, as he uses an array of dribble moves, pump fakes, and his 6-foot-7 frame to draw fouls and produce open shots. Doncic ranked in the 95th percentile last season with 9.4 free throws attempted per 100 possessions and has one of the best stepback jumpers in this league. His shooting percentages don’t jump off the page (42.7% from the field, 32.7% from deep), but he has a fluid shooting stroke.
The only glaring flaw in Doncic’s game is that he doesn’t finish particularly well at the rim due to a lack of athleticism, as he shot just 60.5% at the rim. His lack of explosiveness at the rim makes things tough and he doesn’t have the ability to blow by defenders often due to a lack of quickness. Doncic also had the ninth most turnovers in the league last year as he’ll need to cut down on his mistakes moving forward.
Defensively, Doncic anticipates passing lanes well and rebounds exceptionally for a guard who lacks vertical. While he can jump in front of passes and forces turnovers, he can get caught leaning at times and can have a poor center of gravity. Doncic is also good on-ball defender but can make mistakes and doesn’t always rotate when he should.
The 2019 Rookie of the Year will be paired with fellow international star Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis missed the entire 2018–19 season recovering from a torn ACL and was traded midseason from the Knicks to Dallas in a surprise move. In his first three seasons in the NBA, “The Unicorn” has already been selected to an All-Star team and has averaged 17.8 points and 2 blocks per game.
Porzingis is truly a unique big man with top tier skills. He is a 7-foot-3 big who has the skills and coordination of a shooting guard. KP can shoot over the top of just about any defender, stretch his range out to the 3-point line, has good handles for his size and is a prolific shot blocker. There aren’t many 7-footers who can hit 3’s off screens or off the dribble, but Porzingis has shown an uncanny ability to knock those shots down. He knocked down 40% of his spotup 3-pointers in the 2017–18 season, and should get more opportunities with Doncic at the point.
Porzingis is called “The Unicorn” for a reason, and that is because he can do tings that most other players his size can not. One of those attributes is his ability to put the ball on the deck and take players off the dribble. Porzingis has great dribbling ability, which allows him to drive to the basket where he uses his size to knock down tough shots.
The biggest knocks on Porzingis at this point are his efficiency on offense and his timing on defense. While Porzingis is a good shooter and can score from anywhere on the floor, he has just a 43.3 field goal percentage and a 48.8 effective field goal percentage for his career. Part of his field goal percentage being lower than expected is a lack of back-to-the-basket skills. This trend could change this year as Porzingis has put on a considerable amount of muscle. Defensively, while he is a good shot blocker, he is foul prone and doesn’t always have good timing.
While they haven’t played a game together yet, the Doncic-Porzingis duo should be fun to watch this season. This combination has an immense amount of potential in the pick-and-roll and especially the pick-and-pop. Porzingis has never ranked higher than the 60th percentile as the roll man in the pick-and-roll, but the three point guards he’s had in his career to this point have been Derrick Rose, Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack. Having an elite facilitator like Doncic who excels at finding the open man should help Porzingis become a better pick-and-roll threat. The same goes for the pick-and-pop, which I believe Porzingis will excel at even more due to his shooting abilities.
Outside of Porzingis and Doncic, the rest of the rotation is filled with role players. The Mavericks had a relatively quiet offseason, with their biggest signings being Delon Wright, Seth Curry and Boban Marjanovic.
Traded from Toronto from Memphis last season in the Marc Gasol deal, Delon Wright now enters his third team with the Mavericks, where he projects as the starting point guard. Wright brings a well-rounded skillset to the table, especially on defense where he excels at reading passes and coming up with steals. Wright also uses his 6-foot-5 frame on offense to set up his teammates and make plays. The former Utah Ute’s biggest knock at this point in his inconsistent jumper, as he can fail to keep defenses honest from outside. Last season, Wright shot just 29.8% from downtown and sits at just 33% for his career.
While Wright struggles with his perimeter shot, one players who does not is Seth Curry. Over the last three seasons, Curry has shot over 42.5% from 3-point range and knocked down 45% of his attempts last season with the Trail Blazers. While Curry may not bring much else to the table, he will provide much needed spacing for Rick Carlisle’s offense. If Doncic and Porzingis run into trouble on the perimeter or post, Curry provides an elite option on the wing to kick out to for a 3-pointer.
Boban Marjanovic has become a fan favorite in the NBA over the years. Marjanovic has a rare of combination of being 7-foot-3 and having soft hands. While he isn’t able to play extended minutes, the Serbian big man can dominate games in spurts as he barely has to leap to dunk the ball. He also has nice touch around the basket and an array of post moves around the rim. While he’s never averaged over 14 minutes a game and doesn’t bring much to the table defensively, Marjanovic can always be inserted into the game for a quick burst of offense in the post.
While Doncic was the crown jewel of last year’s draft, the Mavericks got a steal in the second round as well with their selection of Jalen Brunson. The two-time national champion at Villanova continued his success at the pro ranks and averaged 9.3 points per game off the bench in his rookie season. While I have Wright as the starting point guard, Brunson could easily overtake the role. The former Villanova Wildcat is super efficient as both a scorer and playmaker, and while he may not ever become a superstar, he should continue to serve as an effective guard who can run an offense.
With Harrison Barnes now in Sacramento, players like Justin Jackson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Maxi Kleber should all fill in and replace those minutes. Jackson and Hardaway provide the Mavericks with 3-point shooting and can create shots for themsleves, but struggle on the defensive end. With Kleber, you get a solid role-playing power forward who can knock down 3-pointers and is solid on defense. Kleber isn’t great at any particular part of the game, but is an adequate role player who does the little things that help teams win games.
X-Factor: Dwight Powell
Any of the role players on the Mavericks could be put here, but I’ll stick with Powell. While he isn’t a player that leaps out at you, Powell brings a versatile game and is one of the more efficient bigs in the NBA. While he is an energetic player, Powell also has the skillset to play at the four if needed and rarely takes bad shots. Powell thrives in Rick Carlisle’s system where the center must be a good rim-roller and also passes well for a big man. He’ll need to improve his defense as he doesn’t rack up a ton of steals or blocks, and is also continuing to develop a consistent 3-point shot.
Questions:
How will the Doncic-Porzingis duo pan out?
The Mavericks took a big gamble signing Kristaps Porzingis to a five-year, $158 million contract this past summer, and I believe it will pay off. If Porzingis stays healthy, then the newest international duo should be a force in the league for years to come. As I mentioned, the potential these two have as a pick-and-pop combo is astounding and should strike fear into opposing defenses.
How does the rest of the rotation perform?
While the newest star duo should perform well, the rest of the rotation for Dallas will have to step up if the Mavs want to return to the playoffs. Dallas has surrounded the international duo with 3-point specialists and role players who should compliment Doncic and Porzingis, but how they will fuse together remains to be seen. With the Western Conference shaping out to be a bloodbath, the Mavericks will need several players to elevate their performances in order to return to the playoffs.
Verdict:
The Mavericks had a much better season than expected last year, and will look to make the leap back into the postseason this time around. I see two situations happening this season for Dallas. The first is that they flourish, develop quicker than expected and get back to the playoffs. The second would be that this season serves as a year for their young duo of Doncic and Porzingis to develop chemistry while the team tries to get a potential third piece in the 2020 Draft.
At this point, I have the Mavericks finishing in the seventh through 10th range in the Western Conference, and I think it’s currently a toss-up as to whether or not this team will be playing playoff basketball.
