2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: San Antonio Spurs
Head Coach: Gregg Popovich
Last Season: 48–34, 7th in Western Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: Dejounte Murray
- SG: Bryn Forbes
- SF: DeMar DeRozan
- PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
- C: Jakob Poeltl
Additions: DeMarre Carroll, Keldon Johnson (R), Trey Lyles, Luka Samanic (R), Quinndary Weatherspoon (R).
Losses: Davis Bertans, Dante Cunningham, Ben Moore, Donatas Motiejunas, Quincy Pondexter.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the biggest model of consistency in American sports outside of the New England Patriots. Even after the conclusion of the historic Duncan-Parker-Ginobili era, the Spurs have remained a model of consistency and continue to get it done in the regular season.
This success has hinged greatly on the coaching Gregg Popovich. It’s no secret that Pop is one of the greatest to ever coach in NBA history, as he’s consistently taken rosters and players without the greatest on-paper talent and turned them into champions. Since Popovich took over in 1997–98, the Spurs have yet to miss the postseason. Even after Duncan retiring and the Kawhi Leonard trade fiasco that took place last off-season, the Spurs still won 48 games last season, earned the seventh seed in the Western Conference, and gave the Denver Nuggets a run for their money before bowing out in seven games.
While the Spurs were good last season, they were not great. The Spurs have been a model of consistency over the past few seasons, but at the same time have not been dominant like they were around a decade ago. The loss of Kawhi Leonard was a tough blow to this team, evident by the fact that he led the Raptors to their first NBA championship.
The man the Spurs got back in exchange for Leonard, DeMar DeRozan, had a successful campaign last year in his first season in San Antonio. DeRozan is no Leonard, and while the Spurs may not have gotten the better end of the deal in that trade, DeRozan can still produce at a high level. The Compton product averaged 21.2 points per game last season and has become a more well-rounded player over the last few seasons. This is especially the case with his passing and rebounding, as he set career-highs in assists and rebounds per game last year (6.2 and 6.1, respectively).
DeRozan may not be the ideal modern star scorer, but he still gets buckets regardless. His 3-point shooting is still a glaring weakness, as he shot just 16.7% from that distance. Regardless, DeRozan still has one of the best mid-range games in the league and is an elite finisher around the rim. He led the Spurs last season with an impressive mark of 67.4% at the rim. At 30 years old, DeRozan may be past his prime, but he is still one of the better wing scorers in the game. Look for the small forward to continue to be the focal point of Popovich’s offense.
Next to DeRozan is LaMarcus Aldridge, who like DeRozan, could be on the decline soon. Despite the fact that he is getting up there in age, Aldridge has remained a consistent post and mid-range threat. His footwork is impeccable on the low block, and his stability on offense has earned him back-to-back All-Star selections.
Aldridge is the best player on San Antonio’s roster, and should continue to be the number one guy this season. He averaged 21.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game last year and showcased why he is still effective on both ends. He also shot a career best 51.8% from the field, put up the two best scoring games of his career (48 and 56), and an assist rate of 12%, his best as a Spur. Whether it’s face-ups, turnarounds, pump fakes, blowbys or whatever post move he decides to go to, Aldridge is one of the craftiest post players in the game. Aldridge is currently 69th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list as well and is often overlooked for how great he truly is.
Outside of DeRozan and Aldridge, Rudy Gay was the next option for the Spurs offense. Gay has evolved his game over the past few seasons, especially in San Antonio. Gay shot a career-best 40.2% from deep last year and also pulled in a career-best 6.8 rebounds a night. While he may not be the athletic force he once was, Gay is still a quality option to have on a roster and can provide value from several areas. He’s experience somewhat of a revival in San Antonio, and is more than capable of bailing the Spurs out of trouble when they need a basket.
Looking at the two guard, Bryn Forbes appears to be in line to start once again. With Dejounte Murray returning to the rotation, Forbes will more than likely receive a dip in minutes. He averaged 11.8 points per game last year and shot a blazing 42.6% from deep. While Forbes has already established himself as one of the best role playing sharpshooters in the league, the other facets of his game leave much to be desired. If he wants to be a better all-around factor, Forbes will have to improve upon his 2.1 assists and 2.9 rebounds a game. His defense is also a concern.
X-Factor: Dejounte Murray
Having Murray back this season should prove to be a major positive for the Spurs. After missing all of last season with an injury, Murray returns this year and is expected to be the starting point guard.
Two seasons ago, Murray posted a defensive rating of 98.7 and helped lead the Spurs to the third best mark in the league as a team. Murray’s departure was felt last year on defense, as the Spurs dropped to 20th in defensive rating. Murray’s length, quickness and instincts allow him to stay in front of just about an guard and help him wreak havoc in the passing lanes. If he returns to full form, he’ll continue to showcase his abilities as a good facilitator and offense and a ball hawk on D.
Questions:
How will the backcourt shape out?
Gregg Popovich will have to shape out and give opportunities to several good players in the San Antonio backcourt. Outside of Murray and Forbes, you also have Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV and Patty Mills.
White was the biggest and most pleasant surprise for the Spurs last season. After being thrust into the starting lineup for the injured Murray, White thrived and mad great improvements in his second season.
White’s story from receiving one college offer (to a school known for culinary arts) to starting in the NBA is nothing short of incredible. After spending most his rookie season in the G-League, White emerged as a superb playmaker, shooter and scorer for the Spurs last season. On top of that, he was even better on defense and ranked fifth among all point guards in the NBA in Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Patty Mills is still quietly one of the better reserve guards in the league. He is the ideal bench guard and is also a marksman from deep, knocking down 39.4% of his threes last year on 4.9 attempts per game. Mills should lead the second unit once again this year and continue to be a pest on defense in addition to his offensive capabilities.
Last is Lonnie Walker IV, an intriguing young prospect who enters his second season. The Miami (FL) product had a good off-season and averaged 30 points per game on 55% shooting in the Summer League. While Summer League is not indicative of how a player will perform in the regular season, Walker should get more minutes this time around. After dealing with a knee injury last year, Walker goes into this season healthy and the game appears to have slowed down for him.
With all of the talent at his disposal, Popovich will have a tough task ahead of him of splitting minutes between his backcourt players. This is also Coach Pop we’re talking about, so everything should ultimately work out.
How will the other role players/additions contribute?
The biggest addition the Spurs made this off-season was acquiring DeMarre Carroll, a veteran wing who can contribute in multiple ways. Carroll is a career 36.2% 3-point shooter, can rebound and defend adequately, and is the ideal forward for the Spurs system. Carroll will play both the three and four this season and will be plugged right into the rotation.
Jakob Poeltl projects to be the Spurs’ starting center this year, and is somewhat of a forgotten entity. After being selected in the lottery of the infamously poor 2016 Draft, Poeltl has spent his career as a role playing big who can do a little bit of everything. He has a soft touch around the basket, good hands, can grab rebounds and blocks some shots. While he may not excel at any one particular attribute, Poeltl is still a quality two-way big man with starter-level talent.
Is this the year the teardown begins?
Many have been predicting for years that the Spurs reign of consistency will tumble, and this season is no different. Will the Spurs trade DeRozan or Aldridge and try to obtain assets? Is this Pop’s last year coaching?
Given how many years they’ve been stuck in the middle now, it seems inevitable that a rebuild is coming. The Spurs have showed no signs of going toward this route, but in a landscape like the NBA, things can change in a hurry.
Verdict:
Last year was the season I thought the Spurs would finally miss the postseason, and I was sadly mistaken. Counting this team out is never a bright move, and until they miss the postseason, it is safe to assume that the Spurs will be back in the playoffs this year.
