2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: Orlando Magic
Head Coach: Steve Clifford
Last Season: 42–40, 7th in Eastern Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: D.J. Augustin
- SG: Evan Fournier
- SF: Johnathan Isaac
- PF: Aaron Gordon
- C: Nikola Vucevic
Additions: Al-Farouq Aminu, Josh Magette, Chuma Okeke (R).
Losses: Troy Caupain, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin, Timofey Mozgov.
The Orlando Magic were one of the more surprising teams in the NBA last season as they won 42 games and made the playoffs for the first time since the Dwight Howard era back in 2012. While they were knocked out in the first round, this was a good sign for a Magic team that has lacked direction for a good majority of the last decade.
Entering the 2019–20 season, the Magic appear to be taking the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it,” mentality, as they are bringing back nearly an identical roster from last year. All but four players from last year’s playoff roster return, as the biggest move Orlando made over the off-season was signing star center Nikola Vucevic to a four-year, $100 million deal.
Last season, Vucevic earned his first All-Star selection and averaged a career-high 20.8 points and 12 rebounds a game. While he’s always been a strong offensive player, Vucevic has evolved his game over the last few seasons. He shot a career-high 36% from 3-point range while shooting more 3-pointers as whole, improved as a passer, and has improved his individual defense. The Montenegrin big man led the Magic in all of the following categories last season: rebounding percentage (20.5%), OBPM (3.0), DBPM (3.4), BPM (6.4), VORP (5.3), plus-minus per/100 (+4.3), and on-off per 100 possessions (+8.9).
Despite Vucevic’s improvement on offense, the Magic were still one of the bottom teams in NBA. Given that they still don’t have a superstar on their roster, the Magic should once again be a team that prides itself on defensive toughness. Orlando ranked fifth in opposing points per game last season and eighth in defensive rating.
One player who has been known for his defense since his college days is forward Johnathan Isaac. The 6-foot-10 forward from Florida State has been one of the better defenders in the NBA through his first two NBA seasons. Given his length and agility, Isaac is capable of guarding all five positions and fouled less during his second season. His current Defensive Box Plus-Minus sits at an impressive 2.2 for his career. He is projected as the team’s starting small forward or power forward this year depending on where Steve Clifford decides to play him.
Isaac is still a project at this point given his lack of a polished offensive game. He is capable of knocking down outside shots, but his 3-point percentage dropped from his rookie to second season (34.8% to 32.3%).
Despite that drop, Isaac improved in almost every other area of his offense. Thanks in part to Clifford’s offensive schemes, Isaac cut his mid-range shot percentage in half last year (36% rookie season, 17% second year). He also turned the ball over less, improved his true shooting percentage from 46% to 53%, and improved his offensive rating from 87 to 107. He’s also proven he can rebound, get to the line and be effective in transition.
Like most players on the Magic, Isaac struggled mightily in the playoffs against the eventual champion Toronto Raptors. The Bronx native will have to get stronger this season and continue to develop his offensive repertoire, especially his jumpshot. If he continues developing his offense, Isaac should be a good complimentary player for Orlando.
Another member of the Magic who has taken great strides the last few years is Aaron Gordon. Gordon put together another solid season last year in his fifth campaign as he averaged 16 points and 7.5 rebounds a contest. While he still hasn’t experienced his breakthrough yet, he is still just 23-years-old and has plenty of time to develop.
While Gordon didn’t significantly get better last year, he slightly improved in many different areas. He’s improved his assist percentage, 3-point shooting and overall defense. This past season was also the first time the former lottery pick posted a positive net rating. Gordon is a more than capable scorer, but must continue to develop the other areas of his game, including his playmaking, defense, ball-handling and shot selection.
In the backcourt, D.J. Augustin put together an impressive season last year that was arguable the best of his career. Augustin notched 11.7 points per game and 5.3 assists per game with a 56.6 percent effective field goal percentage. He may not be the ideal starting point guard, but he’s still a model of consistency and efficiency that rarely turns the ball over. Augustin was one of the most effective players in the playoffs offensively for the Magic last year and hit a game-winner in Game One. He’ll continue to be a stable point guard option until the Magic find a long-term solution.
The other backcourt starter for Orlando, Evan Fournier, is coming off a tough shooting season. He knocked down a career-low 34% of his 3-pointers and posted his worst offensive rating and OBPM as a member of the Magic. Despite these struggles, he was still one of the more clutch players in the league. Fournier ranked eighth in the NBA this past season in total points scored in the last ten seconds of a game where the player’s team was behind or tied with the opposing team. He’s also shot 27 of 53 in his last 74 clutch games and has scored 83 points in that span.
During his tenure with the Magic, the Frenchman has also improved his playmaking and defense to where he is no longer a one-dimensional player. While it may be largely in part to Clifford’s defensive scheme, Fournier is now an average defender which is definitely an improvement from his early years in the NBA.
X-Factor: Terrence Ross
For a team that lacks a true spark plug on offense, Terrence Ross may be one of the better options Orlando has. The Magic relied heavily on Ross off the bench last year to come in and provide instant offense, and that’s exactly what he did. He made 38.3% of his 566 attempts from deep last year and was a candidate for Sixth Man of the Year.
Ross is coming off his most consistent season as a pro as he averaged a career-high 15.1 points per game. He was rewarded for this play this summer with a four-year, $54 million contract. Despite him frequently coming off the bench, the Magic constantly ran their offense through Ross last season. While Ross can heat up quick, he can also go cold for long stretches. If he continues to improve his consistency, he could once again be in the running for the Sixth Man of the Year award.
Questions:
How will the addition of Al-Farouq Aminu impact this team?
The Magic made the least amount of moves of any NBA team this off-season, but their biggest addition was signing the veteran combo-forward Aminu to a 3-year, $29 million deal. Aminu was a consistent starter for the Trail Blazers over the last two seasons and averaged 9.5 points and 7.5 rebounds a game during that span.
Aminu can be classified as a 3-and-D wing who will be relegated to the bench this season. While many viewed this signing as questionable given how many forwards the Magic have, I think this move will prove beneficial for Orlando. Aminu fits right in with Gordon and Isaac in the category of athletic wings with upside who can do a little bit of everything. Given that first round raft pick Chuma Okeke will be redshirted in the G-League this season, Aminu should fit nicely into the rotation and provide depth off the bench in the frontcourt.
What can we expect from Markelle Fultz and Mo Bamba?
Fultz and Bamba have two things in common: they are two young prospects with high upside and they both had disappointing seasons last year.
Starting with the Fultz, the former number one pick back in 2017 has already been labeled one of the biggest draft busts in NBA history. After two tumultuous seasons in Philadelphia and being diagnosed with both Thoratic Outlet Syndrome and the yips, Fultz has the chance to flip the script and revive his career with the Magic. Given that Augustin is bound to slip at some point (I beleive it will be this season) and that Fultz is under contract with Orlando for at least two more season, he will have the opportunity to prove his worth and emerge as the starting point guard. If Fultz is even half of what he was in his college days at Washington, he will immensely help the Magic win.
As for Bamba, the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft struggled like most rookies do in his first season. The Magic were 14 points were per 100 possessions when Bamba was on the floor last season. Offensively was where he struggled the most, as he posted an OBPM of just -3.3 to go along with a a true shooting percentage of 54% and an offensive rating of 105.
One thing Bamba did excel at was shot blocking, which is what he’s been knwn for since his high school days. He led the Magic last season with three blocks per 36 minutes and block percentage with 7%. Still, his defensive awareness and positioning were subpar more often than not. If he can continue to get stronger, bigger and in better shape while improving his awareness on both ends, Bamba has the potential to be a force in this league.
Will this team go after a star point guard?
The one thing that may be holding this offense and team back is the lack of a true, elite point guard. If Augustin and Fultz don’t suffice and this team is struggling come mid-season, the Magic may entertain the idea of acquiring a star.
The two biggest names on the rumor mill right now are Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. Lowry just agreed to a one-year, $31 million extension with the Raptors, which hurts his chances of being dealt. With Paul, the Thunder aren’t expected to hold on to him for too long. If the Magic want to make a leap and win now, moving young assets and draft picks for Paul is an option. A point guard like Paul would elevate an offense that has struggled in recent years and wouldn’t hurt them on defense either. It ultimately comes down to whether or not the Magic want to take on Paul’s contract while also shipping away young talent.
Verdict:
The Magic are essentially running it back this year, which isn’t a terrible idea. Orlando will use the same balanced roster full of defensive specialists to try to get back to the playoffs once again. This team should be right around where they were last year: a .500 squad that barely reaches the playoffs and bows out in the first round. How this season plays out ultimately lies in how the younger players develop.
