2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: New Orleans Pelicans
Head Coach: Alvin Gentry
Last Season: 33–49, 13th in Western Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: Lonzo Ball
- SG: Jrue Holiday
- SF: Brandon Ingram
- PF: Zion Williamson
- C: Derrick Favors
Additions: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (R), Lonzo Ball, Zylan Cheatham (R), Derrick Favors (UTA), Josh Gray, Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes (R), Brandon Ingram, Nicolo Melli (R), J.J. Redick, Zion Williamson (R).
Losses: Dairis Bertans, Trevon Bluiett, Ian Clark, Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Solomon Hill, Stanley Johnson, Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, Christian Wood.
The Anthony Davis era in New Orleans was a major disappointment, as the Pelicans made just two playoff appearances and won just one series. After demanding a trade last season, Davis got his wish and was shipped to the Los Angeles Lakers. The Pelicans got plenty in return for AD though, including a plethora of young talent and draft picks. In just one summer, New Orleans essentially rebuilt on-the-fly and completely transformed its roster.
It didn’t take long for New Orleans to find its replacement for Davis, as the Pels selected Zion Williamson with the first pick in the 2019 Draft. New Orleans found luck in the new lottery system and landed a new franchise cornerstone.
As hard as this may be to believe given that he was a number one pick, Zion Williamson may be coming into the league underrated. His mix of size, athleticism and basketball IQ at such a young age is rare in a prospect. Williamson finished 78.9% shooting at the rim in his freshman season at Duke and has the handles of a guard, height of a small forward, and strength of a center.
Another area that Williamson is underrated in is passing, as he is not afraid to thread the needle in transition. He has excellent vision and should thrive in transition, especially off of rebounds. Williamson should also thrive in the pick-and-roll both as a ball handler and roller.
Offensively, the only glaring weakness Williamson has at this point in his jumper. While he has a nice touch from mid-range, defenses will more than likely sag off Williamson this season, especially from the 3-point line. In college, he shot just 33.8% from deep and 64% from the line.
Defensively, Williamson may have even more potential than he does on offense. He has the capability to cover all five positions on the floor due to his strength and agility. In the post, he has the strength to deter opposing big men and also has the ability to switch on to guards on the perimeter.
Williamson’s stat profile was downright absurd at Duke. He ranked in the 95th percentile or above in points per 100 possessions, true shooting %, steal %, rim field goals made and rim FG%. If stats aren’t enough for you, here are his accolades from just one college season.
- NCAA All-Region
- Consensus All-American
- Wooden Award
- Naismith Award
- ACC Player of the Year
- All-ACC Team
- All-ACC Tournament Team
- ACC All-Defensive Team
- ACC All-Freshman Team
- ACC Rookie of the Year
- ACC Tournament MVP
Also joining the Pelicans this season are Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart. The trio was sent to the “Big Easy” from Los Angeles in the Davis trade and will look to prove that they are not throwaways for Davis. Each of these players has plenty of talent to offer and should all get their fair share of minutes this season.
Lonzo Ball’s NBA career has been somewhat of an enigma to this point. The second overall pick from the 2017 NBA Draft has drawn comparisons to Jason Kidd from some, while others have referred to him as a bust.
At this point, I believe Ball is quietly one of the more effective point guards in the league who wasn’t in a situation where his abilities could be maximized last year. It will be interesting to see how a change of scenery plays out for Ball and what kind of impact he has for the Pelicans.
Offensively, Ball is one of the more gifted passers in the NBA. The Chino Hills native ranked in the 99th percentile last year in passer rating and puts immense pressure on opposing defenses. When there isn’t an opening or open man, Ball more often than not creates one. He ranked near the top last year in assisted layup percentage, as he routinely set up his teammates with easy looks.
While his passing is elite, the same can not be said for his shot creating or scoring. While Ball can occasionally blow by defenders for a layups or dunks, he struggles to finish at the rim through contact. Shooting has been his biggest downfall yet, as he holds a career slashline of just 38–31–43. Ball ranked in just the 14th percentile in scoring rate last season and in just seventh percentile in true shooting %. He has been working on his form this off-season, as his release is no longer coming from the left side of his body.
What stands out the most to me about Ball’s game are his defensive insticnts. The 6-foot-6 guard is one of the peskiest defenders in the league both on and off the ball. He uses his length, lateral quickness and quick hands to disrupt passing lanes, cut off slashers, fight off screens, and wreak havoc on the defensive end. Ball is very switchable, is a great rebounder for a guard and is very versatile on defense.
What impresses me the most about Ball’s defense is how well he anticipates help and how constant his motor is patrolling the court. While he can gamble a bit too much at times and come up empty on steal attempts, Ball’s help defense is among the best in the league for guards. Last season, Ball ranked eighth in defensive wins added among point guards.
Another player who should benefit from a change of scenery is Brandon Ingram. Like Ball, Ingram is a former second overall pick (2016) who has struggled to live up to expectations in the NBA. The North Carolina native had an up-and-down tenure in Los Angeles that saw him average just under 14 points per game on 45.8% shooting.
On offense, there really isn’t one thing that Ingram particularly excels at. In terms of creating his own shot, Ingram is crafty in that he uses his length and elongated strides to get to the basket and score. At the same time, he isn’t as great a finisher at the rim as someone with his height and wingspan should be, which stems from a lack of elite strength. His dribble moves and frequent two-step move to the hole also become predictable over time, and he also lacks the verticality and quick-twitch muscles to frequently beat defenders off the dribble and finish at the rim at an elite level.
Two more areas Ingram has been inconsistent in are his passing and shooting. As a passer, Ingram is more than capable of operating as a secondary playmaker makeshift point guard, and is a solid threat as a pick-and-roll ballhandler. That being said, he isn’t top-notch in that category either and has the tendency to be too passive at times. Ingram will occasionally miss open cutters to settle for mid-range jumpers and is inconsistent at making reads as a passer.
As a shooter, Ingram is capable of knocking down jumpers, but isn’t going to make defenses sweat. He’s converted just 33% of his career 3-point attempts and has also knocked down only 66% of his free throws. If Ingram is not able to develop his jumper, he will have to become more aggressive in order to open up opposing defenses.
Defensively, Ingram uses his length to his advantages to disrupt passing lanes and jumpers. He also uses his 7-foot-3 wingspan to keep guards in front of him. His gangling arms make up for his lack of quickness and allow him to recover against faster players when he gets beat off the dribble. This lack of quickness can come back to bite Ingram, however, as he struggles to navigate screens at times. His lack of strength doesn’t help his cause either, which also leaves him susceptible to getting bullied on postups.
The last of the additions from the Lakers is Josh Hart, a sharpshooting two guard who should provide the Pelicans with some much-needed 3-point prowess. Hart was as solid role player for the Lakers last season and also emerged as a quality leader. After an injury-filled season that saw him battle knee ailments, Hart will look to bounce back from a sophomore slump in New Orleans.
Looking at the other prominent additions, Derrick Favors and J.J. Redick will be welcoming insertions to the Pelicans rotation. Both players have been very underappreciated over the last few years and should and have to plenty to offer New Orleans.
After a nine-year tenure in Utah, Favors was shipped to New Orleans to make room for other trades and signings. While he isn’t the most glamorous name around, Favors is one of the most consistent players in the league on both ends of the floor. He is an elite rim protector, fantastic rebounder on both ends of the floor and never takes a night off.
Offensively, Favors is one of the most efficient big men in the entire NBA. He can finish at the rim at a high level, and has also developed a reliable mid-range game. Favors is without question one of the 10 best centers in the league and should thrive as the starter in New Orleans. He is the kind of player that shows up to work night in and night out, never complains about anything, and is a great presence in the locker room.
After shedding Solomon Hill’s contract, the Pelicans added a lethal 3-point shooter in J.J. Redick this off-season. The sharpshooting shooting guard is coming off his highest scoring season ever, which speaks volumes given that he was playing alongside Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. While he probably won’t start with the Pelicans like he did in Philadelphia, Redick will be an instant boost on offense for the Pelicans and will absolutely help spread the floor. The Pelicans need shooting, and Redick, who is a 41.3% career 3-point shooter, will provide them with just that.
X-Factor: Jrue Holiday
Despite all the hype Zion Williamson has received and all of the new faces on the roster, this is still Jrue Holiday’s team. Given that he is now the best player on the roster after spending many years as Davis’ second fiddle, Holiday could be poised for a breakout year. He is an All-Star level player who scores well and defends at an elite level.
Holiday was New Orleans’ third-leading scorer (21.2 ppg), leader in assists (7.7 apg) and best individual defender (1.6 spg) last season. The Pelicans were 3–12 in their final 15 games without Holiday last year, further exemplifying his value. In a poll by The Athletic, NBA players voted Holiday the most underrated player in the league, and I would have to agree.
Questions:
Will the Pelicans make the playoffs?
I’m higher on the Pelicans this year than public consensus. While they are still relatively young and have growing pains to go through, I believe this team has the talent to make the postseason. The Pelicans let the league know that they weren’t messing around this off-season when they quickly reloaded following the loss of Davis. This team will be hungry and determined, and I believe they have a strong case for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Do they have enough shooting?
E’Twaun Moore, Redick and Hart project to be the Pelicans top 3-point shooters, but will that be enough to get by? Ball’s jumper looks to be showing signs of improvement, but we still don’t know if that will translate into the regular season. New Orleans will need guys like Ball and Ingram to improve their shooting to keep defenses honest.
What can we expect from Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker?
While Zion Williamson got the most hype of anyone in the draft, the Pelicans also drafted Texas big man Jaxson Hayes in the lottery and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the first round.
Hayes has certainly blossomed over the last few years, as he has gone from hardly playing varsity his junior year of high school to becoming a top 10 pick and backup center for an NBA team. Hayes shows promise as both a rim runner, pick-and-roll threat and defender. He shot a whopping 85% at the rim in his lone season with the Longhorns and also posted a block percentage over 10. Look for the Pelicans to slowly break him in as a reserve center, as he is still fairly raw.
Alexander-Walker is another who can come in and help the Pelicans right away with his shooting. After a successful career at Virginia Tech, the Pelicans took “NAW” 17th overall in the draft to provide backcourt depth. He should especially thrive in catch-and-shoot scenarios, an area he was in the 82nd percentile in in college.
Verdict:
David Griffin should already be in the running for Executive of the Year this season. Not only did he acquire an immense amount of young talent in compensation for losing Anthony Davis, but he has quickly put the Pelicans in a position to make the playoffs right away by adding savvy veterans as well. The Pelicans should be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the year and will be a part of a multi-team scrap for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference.
