2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: Miami Heat
Head Coach: Erik Spolestra
Last Season: 39–43, 10th in Eastern Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: Goran Dragic
- SG: Dion Waiters
- SF: Jimmy Butler
- PF: Kelly Olynyk
- C: Bam Adebayo
Additions: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro (R), Meyers Leonard, Daryl Macon, KZ Okpala (R), Davon Reed.
Losses: Ryan Anderson, Yante Maten, Josh Richardson, Dwyane Wade, Hassan Whiteside.
The Miami Heat said goodbye to the most beloved player in franchise history last season in Dwyane Wade. Wade’s farewell tour was the highlight of the season, as he concludes his career as one of the greatest shooting guards in NBA history. “D-Wade’s” accolades include but are not limited to 13 All-Star appearances, three championships, a Finals MVP award, and eight All-NBA selections.
While Wade’s retirement marks the end of an era for Heat basketball, and Miami wasted no time in getting their next phase started this past off-season. Entering the summer, the Heat found themselves in the same situation they had been in the previous few years: cap-restricted and stuck with an average roster. Ever since LeBron James left Miami, the Heat have been stuck in mediocrity and have advanced past the first round of the playoffs just once.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, it’s that you can never count out Pat Riley. In an unexpected, blockbuster move, the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler and Meyers Leonard in a sign-and-trade with the Philadelphia 76ers. In exchange the Heat sent Josh Richardson to Philadelphia and Hassan Whiteside to Portland, respectively.
Both Riley and Butler got their wishes granted this off-season with this transaction. Butler wanted to be in Miami and be the star of his own team, and Riley wanted a superstar to elevate the Heat’s level of play. He was eligible for a full five-year, $190 million max contract if he remained with the 76ers, but instead signed a four-year, $142 million maximum contract with the Heat. Butler averaged 18.7 points and 1.9 steals per game while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 34.7 percent from three-point range last season. “Jimmy Buckets” gives the Heat a number-one option they’ve lacked for the last half decade.
While Butler certainly brings superb on-court production on both ends of the floor, his off-court character has been questioned on numerous occasions. These issues have mostly stemmed from Butler’s excessive competitiveness. In both Chicago and Minnesota, Butler openly criticized his teammates for not taking the game seriously enough. At the start of last season, Butler demanded a trade from the Timberwolves after accusing the younger players on the team of not caring about winning.
“I think I’m a little extra at times. I don’t think there is too much wrong with that either. If you do what I do every day and other people don’t go about it that way, I think you might have a problem with it too,” Butler said, via Ira Inderman of Sun Sentinel.
While Butler is a great addition, the Heat are going to have to add more talent if they want to return to the NBA Finals. One player on the team that should take a big leap forward this season is Bam Adebayo. After spending a good majority of the last two seasons on the bench behind Whiteside, the starting center position is now Adebayo’s to lose.
Now entering his third season in the league out of Kentucky, Adebayo has all the tools to be an elite defensive anchor for the Heat. He is athletic, has good defensive instincts, and also has a 7-foot-1 wingspan. As Tristan Tucker of allucanheat.com pointed out, Adebayo was the only player on the roster last year to rank in the top three on the team in VORP (first), box plus-minus (first), win-shares (first), block percentage, steal percentage, rebound percentage, free throw attempt rate (first), and true shooting percentage (first).
On top of all this, the Heat went 16–11 in games Adebayo was the starting center compared to 23–41 when Whiteside started at the five last season. The former Kentucky Wildcat is by far the most encouraging young prospect the Heat have at their disposal.
Outside of Butler and Adebayo, the Heat’s roster is filled with scrappy, defensive minded players. Head Coach Erik Spolestra has established a defensive identity for the Heat since the conclusion of the “Big-3” days, as the Heat have been in the top ten in each of the last four seasons in defensive rating. The Heat also have no shortage of veteran leadership. While he has a colored past, I believe Butler, along with other savvy veterans such as Udonis Haslem, Goran Dragic and James Johnson, will provide quality mentoring for the younger players.
The bigger concern for the Heat is on the other side of the ball. While they stood their ground defensively, the Heat ranked 26th in the NBA last season in offensive rating. While Butler should help this standing move up, the Heat still lack another go-to scorer to take pressure off “Jimmy Buckets.”
While he is still a good creator on offense for both himself and his teammates, point guard Goran Dragic had somewhat of a rough season last year. The Slovenian floor general was limited to just 36 games due to injury, and when he did play he wasn’t as effective as in years past. Dragic put up his worst statistical season in Miami last year, but the team still played much better when he was on the floor. The Heat scored 124.2 points off of 100 transition plays coming from a live ball rebound with Dragic on the court, compared to just 99.3 points per 100 plays with off, per Cleaning The Glass.
Dragic is one of the more overlooked point guards in the league, and while he has a lost a step, he is still the driving force of the Heat offense. If he can stay healthy this season, Dragic should once again prove to be a quality distributor and scorer.
Another player who has been hampered by injuries who will be called upon to help the offense is Dion Waiters. The score-first shooting guard has played in just 120 games over the last three seasons in Miami and hasn’t been able to find his rhythm. While I have him as the starter, Waiters could easily fill the sixth man role as well.
At this point, we all know how confident Waiters is as a scorer. This is the same guy who gave himself the nickname “Kobe Wade” when he was in college. If the Heat are ever in need of a guy not named Jimmy Butler to step up in the clutch, Waiters will be the guy. Waiters lacks efficiency and defensive prowess, but can still give you bursts of offense when needed.
X-Factor: Justise Winslow
Justise Winslow has slowly but surely improved every year he has been in the NBA. The former tenth overall pick back in 2015 is one of the more versatile players on the Heat roster, as he provides production on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, Winslow has especially seen improvement in his jumpshot. After shooting 27% and 20% from 3-point land, Winslow has upped his percentages to 38% and 37.5% over the last two campaigns. The former Duke Blue Devil and national champion is also serviceable at the point guard spot where he’s shown value running an offense.
Defensively is where Winslow thrives the most. The 6-foot-7 wing can guard 1–4 due to his strength, quickness and athleticism. Last season, the Heat were 3.7 points per 100 possessions better with Winslow on the court, per Cleaning The Glass.
Questions:
Will the Heat acquire a second star?
Like I said earlier in the article, you can never count out Pat Riley. As their roster stands, the Heat project as a four to five seed in the playoffs with a second round ceiling. Butler is a welcoming addition, but this team is still not elite. Chris Paul has been thrown in the mix as a potential second star, but it will be hard for the Heat to bring him in given their lack of financial flexibility.
One other superstar who could be of interest for Miami is Bradley Beal. While the Wizards have said they don’t plan to move him anytime soon, I believe that changes come the middle of the season. Washington is expected to lose a lot of games, which I think leads to a Beal trade. If Beal does become available, the Heat should be in the running for his services.
What does Tyler Herro bring to the table?
The Heat used the 13th pick in the 2019 Draft to select Tyler Herro. Fresh off his freshman season at Kentucky, Herro averaged 14 points a game as a Wildcat and consistently showed his superb shooting stroke throughout the season.
Herro should get a good amount of minutes in his rookie season and will be a part of Spolestra’s rotation. While his shooting is above average, his defense still needs some work. While he puts in a lot of effort at that end of the floor, Herro’s physical tools limit his defensive ceiling. Herro isn’t the quickest player and his wingspan is three inches shorter than his height. I project Herro to be a journeyman type shooter in the NBA.
How much do the Heat lose in Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside?
I think it goes without saying that both the Miami Heat and Hassan Whiteside were ready to part ways. Pat Riley was finally able to find a trade partner for Whiteside, as the rebounding specialist now resides in Portland. Ever since Whiteside got his big contract, his production has dipped. When you combine this with his poor attitude and the emergence of Adebayo, it’s probably best that Whiteside no longer plays in South Beach.
The loss of Josh Richardson will sting more for the Heat. The team’s leading scorer last year, Richardson provided scoring and playmaking for a team that desperately needed it. While Butler should mitigate this loss, the Heat will miss Richardson and his production far more than they will Whiteside.
Verdict:
The Heat will be playing playoff basketball once again this season, but how far they can make it with this core is still a major question. Miami will be competitive and gritty as always, and their final result will come down to how much they get out of their players not named Jimmy Butler. I have the Heat winning 44 to 48 games this season.
