2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: Indiana Pacers
Head Coach: Nate McMillan
Last Season: 48–34, 5th in Eastern Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: Malcolm Brogdon
- SG: Victor Oladipo
- SF: T.J. Warren
- PF: Domantas Sabonis
- C: Myles Turner
Additions: Goga Bitadze (R), Brian Bowen (R), Malcolm Brogdon, Justin Holiday, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. McConnell, Naz Mitrou-Long, JaKarr Sampson, T.J. Warren.
Losses: Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Tyreke Evans, Cory Joseph, Wesley Matthews, Kyle O’Quinn, Davon Reed, Thaddeus Young.
After starting off the season on a high note and soaring to third place in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers suffered an unfortunate setback when their star player, Victor Oladipo, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Despite banding together and playing a fluid, team style of basketball for the rest of the season, the Pacers dropped to fifth in the standings and were swept out of the playoffs in the first round by Boston.
While the Pacers do lose Bojan Bogdanovic, who played a large role in keeping Pacers a float while Oladipo was out, most of their key core players return from last season. Indiana should get nearly a full season from Oladipo, and their dynamic big man duo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner is set to run it back in “Nap City.”
After experiencing troubles in Orlando and Oklahoma City, Oladipo has emerged as a bonafide star in Indiana. He has proved the critics of the Paul George trade back in the summer of 2017 wrong, as he won Most Improved Player two seasons ago and also led the NBA in steals in that same year. Oladipo has also been selected to two straight All-Star games, was an All-NBA selection in 2017–18, and has averaged 21.1 points per game in two seasons with the Pacers.
While Oladipo has improved as a scorer, his calling card is still his elite defense. Oladipo uses his length superbly for steals, rebounding, on-ball defense and to disrupt passing lanes. On offense, Oladipo could still use some polishing in terms of shot creating, but he is still an excellent facilitator and can knock down an open trey.
Another player who has thrived from the George-Oladipo trade is Domantas Sabonis. In his first two years with the Pacers, Sabonis has been an efficient low post scorer as he’s averaged 12.9 points per game on 55% shooting in Indiana. Sabonis had 30 double-doubles last season, and 27 of them were as a reserve, most in the league for non-starters. He was also the team’s leading rebounder (9.3) and set a franchise record for field goal accuracy in a season (59%).
While Sabonis is a valuable asset, there are many questions surrounding the big man in terms of his future with the Pacers. Should he start or come off the bench? Is he a center or forward? Can he be paired with Myles Turner?
Given how efficient Sabonis has been for Indiana, he should get a more expanded role going forward. Despite playing just 24 minutes a game in his first two seasons in Indiana, Sabonis has been one of the most effective players on the roster. He was the Pacers’ second-leading scorer (behind Oladipo) on a per-minute basis last year, and also led the team in win shares on a per-minute basis (.197).
Next to Sabonis in the paint is Myles Turner, who emerged as one of the premier defensive big men in the NBA last season. Turner led the NBA in blocks last season, as the 6-foot-11 center blocked 2.7 shots per game and had 199 total rejections. Turner is a skilled 7-footer who averaged 13.3 points and 7.2 rebounds a game on 28.6 minutes a contest.
Turner has showed promise on the offensive end, but he hasn’t improved that drastically over the last three seasons. Turner shot a career high 38.8% from 3-point range last season and proved to be a tough matchup for opposing big men. He is quick, mobile and shoots like a small forward.
While he’s improved his jumpshot, his efficiency in the post has declined. His scoring in the paint has steadily declined throughout his career from 46 percent of his points as a rookie to 33 percent this past season. Turner has posted just a -1.4 Offensive Box Plus-Minus in his last two seasons and has struggled with his efficiency shooting wise.
At just 23 years old, Turner still has a lot of upside. Former Pacers President Larry Bird once said that Turner would be the greatest Pacer ever, and while he has yet to come close to that billing, Turner has showed flashes of great play and should be a valuable asset for the Pacers this season.
Indiana has never been a team that has been able to draw big name free agents, and that once again proved to be the case this past summer. While they didn’t bring in another star, they did acquire several players that will provide depth.
The biggest move the Pacers made this off-season was acquiring the 2016 Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in a sign-and-trade with the Bucks. The Pacers sent one first round pick and two second round picks to the Bucks for Brogdon, as Indiana signed the former Virginia guard to a four-year, $85 million deal.
While this deal may be a bit expensive for what Brogdon has produced so far in his NBA career, the 26-year-old guard is a player on the rise. Brogdon is coming off his best and most efficient season as a pro yet, as he averaged 15.6 points per game on 50.5% shooting, 42.6% from deep, and 92.8% from the free throw line. Brogdon became just the eighth player in NBA history to join the 50–40–90 club, and given how well he plays both on and off the ball, the combo guard should prove to be a good fit next to Oladipo.
The Pacers also improved their wing depth as well, as they acquired T.J. Warren in a trade with the Suns and signed shooting guard Jeremy Lamb. Indiana got Warren for virtually nothing in a trade with the Suns, as the Pacers sent cash to Phoenix for Warren and the 32nd pick of the 2019 Draft.
Warren, who was the number two scoring option in Phoenix last season behind Devin Booker, is slated to be starting small forward for the Pacers this season. The five-year veteran is coming off his most efficient season as a scorer, as he averaged 18 points per game on 48.6% shooting and a career high 42.8% from downtown. Warren also still has another three years and $35 million left on his contract.
Given that the Pacers are a team that ranked fifth in 3-point percentage last season and took the second least amount of 3’s per game, Warren should be a welcome addition to the squad. Warren is also more than capable of creating his own shot and can be played at either forward position.
Warren still struggled with his efficiency from inside the arc last season, as he converted on just 51% of his 431 2-point attempts. He also isn’t a very good defender or passer, which leads me to question how much of an impact he can make moving forward. Warren is a more than capable scorer, but his other deficiencies limit his overall impact on the court.
Another player that should come in and provide an instant spark for the Pacers is Jeremy Lamb, as the Pacers inked him to a three-year, $31 million deal. The seven-year veteran is coming off his best season as a pro, as he averaged a career high 15.3 points per game for the Hornets last year. Lamb should be the temporary starting two guard until Oladipo comes back and will give the Pacers another scoring threat on the wing. Lamb is effective at floaters, 3-pointers and has improved his defense over the past few years. Justin Holiday is another wing who will provide good defense and energy for the Pacers off the bench.
Looking at some of the younger players on the team, former UCLA Bruins Aaron Holiday and T.J. Leaf should get plenty of chances this season. Along with newly signed guard T.J. McConnell, Holiday will get minutes off the bench as a reserve point guard. McConnell is a reliable backup who thrives at facilitating and running and offense, while Holiday is a score-first point guard who can hit long range shots. Holiday needs to work on his decision making and cut down on hos turnovers, but still promises to be a solid point guard in the NBA.
T.J. Leaf had an uncharacteristic season last year shooting the ball, as he converted on just 28% of his 3-pointers. Pegged as a stretch big coming out of college, Leaf has yet to find his footing in the NBA. He was also stuck on the bench most of the season behind Thaddeus Young, Sabonis and Bogdanovic. Regardless, he is still the most effective Pacer around the basket as he can score in variety. While the percentages may not indicate it, Leaf is a good shooter who should see improvement with more reps and minutes.
The Pacers had one first round pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, and they used it to select Goga Bitadze with the 18th overall pick. The 19-year-old Georgian big man projects as a solid rim protector and inside-out scorer. Bitadze has made great strides with his jumpshot, as he shot 43.3% percent from outside en route to a Serbian League MVP honor. He is also serviceable on the defensive end, as he posted a 9.4% block percentage last season in the Euroleague. Bitadze does lack lateral quickness, which could make him a frequent target of pick-and-rolls.
X-Factor: Myles Turner
Outside of Victor Oladipo, the Pacers need a second option on offense to help take the team to the next level. While he is already a force on defense, Turner will have to improve his efficiency on offense to elevate the Pacers play, especially in the post. If Turner continues to knock down 3’s consistently, it could unlock another level for this Pacers offense. If not Turner, then Brogdon, Sabonis or Warren will have to become the second option behind Oladipo.
Questions:
Do the Pacers have enough firepower to compete for the Eastern Conference title?
The Pacers are one of the deeper teams in the Eastern Conference, but at the same time, I can’t see them being a team that reaches the NBA Finals. Victor Oladipo is a great player, but he is not at the level of other stars in the conference such as Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid.
The Pacers have a lot of talent, as they have done a good job of shoring up their depth at all positions. That being said, I believe the Pacers are still one star player short of being true title contenders.
Can Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis play together?
While Turner and Sabonis are two promising big men, the biggest question the Pacers must ask themselves at this point is whether or not the two can gel moving forward. While it was a small sample size, Sabonis and Turner had a net rating of -28.6 when they played together in the playoffs.
The Pacers have Turner locked up long term, but Sabonis is set to hit restricted free agency soon. The Pacers will have to quickly find out if this pair is worth keeping together.
Can Victor Oladipo be a star on a championship team?
Victor Oladipo suffered a major injury last season, as he ruptured a quad tendon in his right knee. Oladipo is not expected to return until December at the earliest.
The Pacers success this season hinges on whether or not Oladipo can even slightly return to the play level he was showcasing before his injury. If Oladipo returns with full health, this team can easily grab a top four seed in the Eastern Conference. If not, the Pacers could be set up with a tough first round matchup against the 76ers or Bucks.
Verdict:
The Pacers are a talented team, but given Oladipo’s injury, I see this season as a stepback year for Indiana. If the Pacers’ star player is unable to return to full health this year, which I believe will be the case, then they will drop a few spots in the standings compared to last year. I have the Pacers win total in the 42 to 46 range, as they will get back to the playoffs.
