2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: Houston Rockets
Head Coach: Mike D’Antoni
Last Season: 53–29, 4th in Western Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: Russell Westbrook
- SG: James Harden
- SF: Danuel House
- PF: P.J. Tucker
- C: Clint Capela
Additions: Ryan Anderson, Tyson Chandler, Chris Clemons (R), Ben McLemore, Thabo Sefolosha, Russell Westbrook.
Losses: Chris Chiozza, Trevon Duval, Vincent Edwards, Kenneth Faried, Chris Paul, Iman Shumpert.
For the third time in the last four seasons, the Houston Rockets were eliminated by the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs last year. With Golden State no longer the top dogs in the conference, the Rockets are gearing up to make a push at their first NBA title since 1995.
Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey has never been one to shy away from making big moves, and this past off-season was no different. After multiple reports of tension between Chris Paul and James Harden surfaced, the Rockets made the most unexpected move of the off-season and trade Paul to the Thunder in exchange for Russell Westbrook. The two MVPs are reunited and the Rockets have the best backcourt in the league on paper.
While Westbrook and Harden are both exceptional talents individually, their fit together on the court has been questioned. Given that both guards are ball-dominant players, many believe they will lack chemistry on the court as a duo. Last season, Harden had the second-highest usage rate (40.5) in NBA history, behind only Westbrook (41.7) in his 2016–17 MVP season.
Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook both have their share of pros and cons in terms of how they fit with Harden. The first and most glaring advantage for Paul is that he is a far better outside shooter than Westbrook. CP3 is a career 37% 3-point shooter who shot 35.8% on 6.1 attempts per game last season, while Westbrook has shot 30.8% for his career. Defenses have to respect Paul from the outside as opposed to Westbrook, who they will gladly let shoot long-range attempts.
The other advantage Paul has is that he is more of a facilitator and less of a shot hunter than Westbrook. If Russ is going to thrive with Harden, he will have to do more off the ball and find other ways of being productive outside of scoring. Even if Westbrook doesn’t substantially improve his 3-point shot, he has to cut to the basket more. Last season, Westbrook cut to the basket on just 1.5% of his plays on offense. This duo’s fit may not look promising, but I believe it will work out better than the Paul-Harden combination.
A big reason that I feel Westbrook will have more success in Houston than Oklahoma City is that he will have more space to operate and play his style of basketball. In Oklahoma City, Westbrook often had to drive and cut through several defenders in clogged lanes on his way to the basket. In Houston, this shouldn’t be an issue, as the Rockets have more 3-point shooting. Under Daryl Morey, the Rockets have emphasized 3-point shooting and floor spacing whereas the Thunder have relied more on athleticism and defense. Given that there shouldn’t be as much help defense on Westbrook in Houston as there was in OKC, he should be even more effective at the rim and as a facilitator. Westbrook should be even more dangerous now in transition as well. Given that his rim frequency was 37.54% last season compared to Paul’s 9.86%, Westbrook should unlock Houston’s offense more than Paul did.
The biggest things that both Harden and Westbrook have to improve upon at this point would their off-ball movement and defense. Like Westbrook, Harden has the tendency to stand around and watch when the offense is not operating through him. If both players can become more well-rounded and involved without the ball in their hands, the pair should work out well on offense.
Defensively is where I worry about the two guards playing together. Throughout their careers, Harden and Westbrook haven’t been known for their defense and both have often been hidden in their team’s respective defensive schemes. Given that Clint Capela isn’t an elite defensive five and can’t mask their issues, along with the fact that both Harden and Westbrook will be playing a lot of minutes together, the Rockets defense could be headed for a downslide.
If the Rockets want to avoid this downward trend from taking place, Westbrook and Harden both have to step up their intensity on D. Both Harden and Westbrook have the physical tools to be great defenders, but it will ultimately come down to how much effort they choose to put in on that end of the floor. The guard combo will have to show more effort fighting through screens, cut down on the amount of gambles they take on steals and avoid taking plays off.
Obviously there is a lot of risk in bringing in Westbrook, the worst volume 3-point shooter in the NBA, into a system that thrives on 3-point shooting and spread out pick-and-rolls. Despite the red flags, I believe the move will prove beneficial for the Rockets. Still, unlike Paul, Westbrook is not on the decline and the Rockets window to win a title is now. Westbrook should prove to be more valuable in this system and will be a refreshing change of pace from Paul.
While I talked about his fit with Westbrook, it’s impossible to ignore the individual season Harden put together last year. Harden became the first player in over 30 years to average over 36 points per game last season, as “The Beard” averaged 36.1 points a contest. Harden also became the first player in NBA history last season to average over 35 points and five assists per game, as Harden dished out just over eight dimes a game last year.
At this point, Harden is near-unstoppable on the offensive end and has shown a unique ability to dominate in the lane and from beyond-the-arc. Harden may be the craftiest scorer the league has ever seen, as his instincts, footwork, dribble moves and stepbacks are impeccable.
Looking at the rest of the roster, everything looks relatively similar to last year for Houston. Eric Gordon will be inserted into the starting lineup along with returning starters P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela. On August 30, the Rockets signed their sharpshooting guard Gordon to a four-year, $75 million contract extension, which will cover his age 32 to 35 seasons.
Gordon is the perfect player for the Rockets system, and while he is injury prone and on the wrong side of 30, he is one of the more valuable players on the Rockets roster. The 2016–17 Sixth Man of the Year is a phenomenal 3-point shooter and unlocks the floor for the Rockets offense tremendously. While he is a good shooter, Gordon is not one-dimensional as he is capable of beating his man off the dribble and getting buckets at the rim as well. While he isn’t a great box score defender and doesn’t rack up a ton of steals, Gordon still uses his strength to his advantage to occasionally fight off shots in isolation and post-up situations.
Another important piece to the Rockets’ puzzle is their power forward P.J. Tucker. Tucker came up just shy in making NBA All-Defensive Second Team in 2018–19, finishing one point shy of Kawhi Leonard (39), despite receiving more second-team votes (36). Despite this snub, Tucker is one of the better defenders in the NBA and caused Kevin Durant to shoot a much lower percentage against the Rockets than he did the Clippers in last year’s playoffs. Tucker is the heart and soul of this Rockets squad and is a true dirty work player whose impact doesn’t always show up in the box score.
Offensively, Tucker isn’t a prominent scorer, but he doesn’t need to be. Tucker has developed into a reliable 3-point shooter over the years. Given that 4.7 of his 6.4 shots per game are 3’s, Tucker is always waiting on the wing for a look and should continue to prove to be a solid kick out option for Harden and Westbrook.
Clint Capela, the center for Houston and one of the younger members of the Rockets core, has somewhat of a convoluted season last year. Offensively, it was the 25-year-old’s best season as a pro, as he averaged a career-high 16.6 points per game and continued to serve as one of the best rim-running big men in the NBA. Capela still hasn’t developed much as a shooter, post scorer or free throw shooter though, and gets most of his buckets off putbacks and lobs.
Unlike on offense, Capela did not see improvement on the defensive end. This was especially the case in post-ups, as the Swiss big man struggled to defend against traditional bigs. Capela did not see the same defensive success last season as in 2017–18, which stemmed from hand and thumb injuries he suffered in the preseason and regular season, respectively. For the second straight season, Capela ranked in the bottom third of the league in points per possession (PPP) when defending post-ups last year. He is exceptional at switching onto guards in pick-and-roll, however, which is an essential skill for bigs in today’s NBA.
When it comes to bench usage, no team utilizes their bench less than the Rockets, especially come playoff time. Players such as Austin Rivers and Gerald Green provide short bursts of scoring off the bench, but both have their deficiencies on defense. Rivers did up his production in the playoffs last season however, as he upped his 3-point percentage. After shooting 32.1% from deep in 47 regular season games with the Rockets, Rivers shot 45.7% from deep over the 10 postseason games he played. He was the Rockets most efficient 3-point shooter from beyond-the-arc during the most important part of the year.
Looking at the rest of the bench, other players such as Nene, Tyson Chandler and Thabo Sefolosha will get chances to make an impact. All three players are positives on the defensive end that will look to make the most of their final years in the league. Sefolsoha is a good, quiet add from Houston, as he is still one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league and can knock down some 3-pointers as well.
X-Factor: Russell Westbrook/James Harden
If the Rockets wanted to avoid another early playoff exit, then the Westbrook-Harden duo has to gel efficiently. Simply put it: this team goes as far as their new star guard duo takes them.
If both Harden and Westbrook retired today, they would be no doubt hall of famers. One thing both these players lack, however, is team success to this point in their careers. Neither Russ or Harden has a ring, and now is as good a time as ever to get it.
Questions:
Is the road to the finals easier or harder now for Houston?
While the Warriors look weaker going into this season, the Western Conference will be as challenging as ever. The Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets and Jazz have all gotten better over the last few seasons, and the Warriors are still a very good team. While Golden State isn’t the clear-cut favorite anymore, there are still six quality teams, including the Rockets, that have a legitimate shot at heading to the finals.
Can James Harden exorcise his playoff demons?
Despite being one of the more dominant players in the league, Harden has gained the reputation of being a player who falters in the postseason and whose playstyle can’t win titles. These criticisms have given Harden even more motivation headed into this season.
“I still haven’t accomplished half of what I want to accomplish. Like, multiple championships. I want to be one of those basketball players that you won’t forget. And obviously, we all remember the Kobes and the Jordans and the D-Wades and all those guys. I want to be in that same conversation, obviously, in championships and all that good stuff, and best shooting guards to ever play the game,” Harden said, via spacecityscoop.com.
Verdict:
With most of their core over the age of 30, the time for the Rockets to win a championship is right now. While they have been questioned in terms of how well they can play together with Westbrook now in town, I still have the Rockets as the favorites to win the Western Conference and the NBA Championship.
