2019–2020 NBA Season Previews: Atlanta Hawks
The NBA season begins in 30 days as anticipation for the 74th campaign of the association runs rampant. Several superstars changed teams and conferences this past summer, and for the first time in several years, there is no clear favorite to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in June.
Without further ado, here are my projections for the 2019–20 NBA season, starting with the Atlanta Hawks. I will be posting one preview per day until the regular season begins on October 22. For each team, I included an outlook, questions, an x-factor player, and player evaluations.
Head Coach: Lloyd Pierce
Last Season: 29–53, 12th in Eastern Conference
Projected Starters:
- PG: Trae Young
- SG: Kevin Huerter
- SF: De’Andre Hunter
- PF: John Collins
- C: Alex Len
Additions: Charlie Brown (R), Allen Crabbe, Bruno Fernando (R), Brandon Goodwin, De’Andre Hunter (R), Damian Jones, Jabari Parker, Chandler Parsons, Cameron Reddish (R), Evan Turner.
Losses: Jaylen Adams, Justin Anderson, Kent Bazemore, Deyonta Davis, Dewayne Dedmon, Isaac Humphries, Miles Plumlee, Alex Poythress, Taurean Prince, Omari Spellman.
As ironic as this may be, the Atlanta Hawks exceeded expectations by winning 29 games last season. After starting the season 6–23, the Hawks young players began to hit their stride and Atlanta won 23 of its last 53 games. Entering this season, the Hawks are one of the more intriguing young teams in the NBA as they look to accelerate their rebuild.
In the 2018 NBA Draft, it was more than obvious what style the Atlanta Hawks were trying to replicate. General Manager Travis Schlenk, former Assistant GM of the Warriors, was trying to copy the model that brought success to Golden State. He selected Trae Young to be the next Stephen Curry, Kevin Huerter to be the next Klay Thompson, and Omari Spellman to be the next Draymond Green. While Spellman is now out of Atlanta (with Golden State, as it happens), Young and Huerter put together promising rookie seasons and will look to build on that success moving forward.
After struggling out of the gate, Trae Young had a late-season surge that put him in the Rookie of the Year conversation. Young finished his rookie season averaging 19.1 points, 8.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. While he’s known for his long-range triples, Young’s best asset is his ability to facilitate and get his teammates involved. He is especially effective in the pick-and-roll and sprays the corners at a high level as well. Despite a lack of size, he almost always finds a way to deliver the ball to his target with a good amount of velocity. Coach Lloyd Pierce had the Hawks playing at the fastest pace in the NBA last year, and Young did a good job of guiding the uptempo offense and getting everybody involved.
Going back to Young’s shooting, while he improved his shot selection as his rookie season progressed, he still shoots more long 3-pointers than anyone in the league. Young will often jack up treys from far beyond the line just a few seconds into the shot clock and isn’t the most accurate shooter from distance either. In his last two years, between his rookie season in Atlanta and his freshman season at Oklahoma, Young has shot just 34.5% from deep. He also struggles with finishing at the rim, as he was in the eighth percentile last season in field goal percentage at the hoop.
While Young is certainly a positive on offense, his defense is abysmal. Last season, Young had the worst Defensive Real Plus Minus of all point guards and often looks disinterested on that end of the floor. Young’s size and lack of strength limit him on defense, as opponents will often play bully ball and out-muscle Young to the hoop for an easy bucket. His lack of strength also limits his ability to work around screens and provide help when needed.
Overall, while Young still has a lot of things to work on, I still see All-Star potential in him. Many questioned the Hawks for trading Luka Doncic for Young in the 2018 NBA Draft, but Young seems to be on a good trajectory and should continue to get better. If “Ice Trae” can continue to improve his shot selection and accuracy while becoming less of a negative on defense, then he should be a high-end point guard in the association.
Young’s backcourt partner and fellow first-round pick Kevin Huerter also had an encouraging rookie season. The Maryland product was praised coming out of college for his 3-point shooting abilities, and that’s exactly what he brought to the Hawks in his rookie year as he shot 38.5% from deep. Huerter is also a good athlete, takes smart shots, and is a better passer than people give him credit for. He also ranked in the 81st percentile in perimeter defending, which was a concern for him coming out of college. While he is agile, Huerter will have to add muscle in order to maintain consistent minutes in the NBA and keep up with other NBA shooting guards.
John Collins proved last season that his rookie year was not a fluke. After averaging 10.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in his first year, Collins upped his scoring average a full nine points to 19.5 points a contest in his second season. Collins’ biggest strength is his athleticism, which he uses to his advantage to grab rebounds and score down on the block. He is also developing more of a face-up game and is showing more consistency with his mid-range shot.
While he is a decent shot blocker due to his athleticism, Collins struggles on the defensive end and has shown weaknesses on that end since his college days at Wake Forest. Collins lacks ideal wingspan and frame due to a lack of muscle and is often foul-prone on defense.
While I don’t think he will ever make any All-NBA teams, Collins should be a good starter in the NBA and will be a fantastic building block for the Hawks. He is a smart, athletic big man who has proven to be a steal at the 19th overall pick from the 2017 NBA Draft.
Speaking of young talent, the Hawks decided to shore up their small forward spot in the 2019 NBA Draft by selecting De’Andre Hunter with the fourth pick and Cam Reddish with the 10th pick.
Fresh off a national championship with Virginia, Hunter had a breakout sophomore season last year for the Cavaliers. He made great strides offensively last year as he averaged 15 points a game on 53% shooting from the field and 42.8% from downtown.
Hunter does have some concerns on both ends of the floor. While he did shoot a good percentage from deep last year, he took just 2.8 long-range attempts per game in 32.5 minutes a contest. 3-point shooting is his best attribute on offense, but I expect him to struggle in that category early on as he increases his volume. Hunter will either have to improve his shooting value or shore up the other areas of his game, as he isn’t the best isolation scorer or playmaker.
Defensively, Hunter has the potential to be a versatile wing defender who can guard almost any position due to his strength, lateral foot speed and winsgpan. That being said, I believe he may be a bit overrated on that end of the floor. Last season, Hunter ranked fifth on the Virginia Cavaliers in defensive Player Impact Plus-Minus, or PIPM. Hunter also had just 3.7 rebounds, 0.6 blocks and 0.6 steals per game last season.
Hunter should prove to be a solid 3-and-D player at the next level. While he may not be a superstar, he should be a nice building block for the Hawks continued rebuild.
The Hawks other first round selection, Cam Reddish, had a disappointing freshman season to say the least. Despite being labeled a knockdown shooter, Reddish shot just 33% from 3-point range and ranked in the 33rd percentile in catch and shoot situations. He also shot just 28% from mid-range and converted just 51.2% percent of his attempts at the rim. Overall, Reddish had an underwhelming season offensively for the Blue Devils from all parts of the floor.
While many believe Reddish has significant potential offensively, I think Reddish’s calling card in the NBA is defense. While Reddish lacked defensive motor at times, he has very good defensive instincts and posted an impressive 2.9% steal rate in his only season at Duke. Reddish can’t rely solely on his defense in the NBA to get by, but if he can change his offensive game and improve on that end, he should carve out a nice role for himself in the professional ranks.
Three more players to keep an eye on this season for Atlanta are Deandre’ Bembry, Alex Len and Jabari Parker. While these players have had fairly underwhelming careers to this point, all showed signs of improvement last season and proved they can be effective role players.
In his first three years in the NBA, Bembry has struggled immensely on offense. Bembry’s biggest weakness on the offensive end has been his lack of a consistent jumpshot, which has haunted him since his college days at Saint Joseph’s. In his first three seasons in the league, Bembry has a slashline of just 44–28–60 and a True Shooting percentage of just 50%.
While Bembry’s offense is a work in progress, his defense and energy have proven beneficial to the Hawks. His 0.8 defensive PIPM ranked second on the Hawks last season only to Dewayne Dedmon, as Atlanta will look for Bembry to keep providing consistent energy and production on the defensive end. After posting career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks last season, Bembry will look to keep progressing in what is a contract year for the fourth-year veteran.
Alex Len continued to evolve his game last season and proved to be a valuable big man for Atlanta. While he hasn’t lived up his top five selection in the 2014 NBA Draft, Len proved last season that he can be productive as a starter or off the bench. Len expanded his range out to the 3-point line and proved that he can knock down long distance shots with consistency. After taking 25 3-pointers in his first five seasons in Phoenix, Len shot 204 of them last year and converted a respectable 36% of those attempts. He averaged a career-high 11 points and 5.5 rebounds last year, and Len has the chance to improve on those marks given the Hawks starting center last year, Dewayne Dedmon, is now in Sacramento.
Jabari Parker is one of three veterans the Hawks brought in this past summer along with Chandler Parsons and Evan Turner. Parker has bounced around the league so far in his career and has battled a slew of injuries, including two ACL tears. Despite his health setbacks, Parker has still proven to be a player who can score in bunches and create his own shot when he wants to. Parker has struggled to stay on the court so far in his career due to a combination of injuries and poor defense, but still has a chance to prove his worth to an Atlanta team who could use his offensive firepower off the bench.
Lastly, Vince Carter returns for his 22nd and final season in the NBA. While he won’t provide much production on the court, Carter should continue to be a good mentor and veteran presence in the locker room. If Carter is able to play in 2020, he will become the first player in NBA history to play in four different decades.
X-Factor: Kevin Huerter
Kevin Huerter should be just as if not more important to the Hawks rebuild as anyone on the roster. The 19th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft will have a chip on his shoulder this season and be out to prove once again that he is more than just a 3-point shooter.
“As a player, I want to be more of a complete package rather than just being known as a three-point shooter. Coming out of college, I got the Kyle Korver and JJ Redick comparisons pretty quickly. Those guys are unbelievable, but, for me, I’m looking more toward guys like Bradley Beal and Gordon Hayward and Klay Thompson since those guys do a little bit more off-the-dribble than Kyle and JJ and they have more of a complete game,” Huerter said, per soaringdownsouth.com.
Huerter is setting the bar high for himself this season as he looks to prove his critics wrong. After taking the starting shooting guard spot last December, Huerter took off and finished the season second on the team efficiency differential (the Hawks were 6.6 points better per 100 possessions with Huerter on the floor). Expect more of the same this season from the sharpshooting guard.
Questions:
Can this team improve defensively?
While the offense should once again be exciting to watch, the defense is the big concern with this squad. The Hawks ranked 29th in defensive rating last year and allowed a league-worst 119.4 points per game.
While DeAndre’ Bembry is a solid wing option defensively and Alex Len and Damian Jones should provide good interior defense in spurts, this team all around should continue to struggle on D. Their youth and inexperience don’t exactly help them on the defensive end of the floor either. The Hawks could see slight improvement on defense, but it won’t be significant enough to get them over the hump and improve drastically.
Are the Hawks legitimate sleepers for the playoffs?
Many believe this Atlanta Hawks team is a sleeper to make the playoffs this season, but I can’t see it happening.
The biggest knock I have on this team right now is inexperience to go along with the previously mentioned lack of defense. They also lack consistent 3-point shooting as a unit as well. Overall, I just don’t think this team is deep or talented enough to make the postseason just yet.
Verdict:
While the young core looks promising and should continue to develop this year, the Hawks are still looking at another rebuilding season. This team should be exciting, but I’d give it at least another year at minimum before they make the playoffs.
The Hawks took on their fair share of bad contracts this past summer as they try to clear their books after the season and accelerate their rebuild. Atlanta is looking at another losing season, but the future certainly looks bright for this organization. I’m projecting a win total in the 29 to 32 range for the Hawks.
